Spatial statistical modelling of insurance risk: a spatial epidemiological approach to car insurance

Spatial models, such as the Besag, York and Mollie (BYM) model, have long been used in epidemiology and disease mapping. A common research question in these subjects is modelling the number of disease events per region; here the BYM models provides a holistic framework for both covariates and dependencies between regions. We use these tools to assess the relative insurance risk associated with the policyholders geographical location. A Bayesian modelling approach is presented and an elastic net is used to reduce the large number of possible geographic covariates. The final inference is performed using Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation. The model is applied to car insurance data from If P&C Insurance together with spatially referenced covariate data of high resolution, provided by Insightone. The entire analysis is performed using freely available R-packages. Including spatial dependence when modelling the number of claims significantly improves on the result obtained using ordinary generalised linear models. However, the support for adding a spatial component to the model for claims cost is weaker.     

Measuring industrial upgrading: applying factor analysis in a global value chain framework

ABSTRACT

A key question for promoting international competition is how to improve the position of countries and industries in global value chains (GVCs). The first step is to properly measure industrial upgrading in GVCs. This is not a trivial issue because upgrading has not been defined unambiguously. Several authors have used different (and sometimes related) measures, all of which indicate certain aspects of upgrading. Rather than trying to find the single, ultimate measure of upgrading, we propose a different approach. We examine the multidimensionality of industrial upgrading, using eight indicators in factor analysis. Four of the eight indicators adopt the GVC perspective and include, for example, the growth of the share in value-added exports. We provide three quantitative dimensions of industrial upgrading: process upgrading, product upgrading, and skill upgrading. With these dimensions, we compare and analyze the upgrading of different countries and industries using the World Input–Output Database.     

Do firms lease to hedge? CEO risk-taking and operating lease intensity

Operating leases are used extensively for financing, but their ability to separate ownership and use also creates hedging opportunities. We investigate whether firms recognize such opportunities by examining the relation between chief executive officer (CEO) risk-taking incentives and the use of operating leases. Consistent with firms using operating leases to hedge, we find higher CEO risk-taking incentives lower operating lease intensity. To address endogeneity, we use the adoption of Statement of Financial Accounting Standards 123R as an exogenous shock to option compensation, dynamic panel generalized method of moments, simultaneous equations, and change regressions. Our results are robust to placebo and alternative tests.     

Green technology innovation: Anatomy of exploration processes from a learning perspective

This paper examines how established firms use their core competences to diversify their business by exploring and ultimately developing green technologies. In contrast to start‐ups dedicated to a green mission, diversifying into green markets by developing new products based on existing core competences has proven to be challenging. This is because the exploration processes to find a match between green technology opportunities and internal competences is complex and new to most established firms. This paper gains insights into exploration processes for green technologies and the learning modes and outcomes linked to these processes. We examined exploration processes at the microlevel in an embedded case study of an engineering firm using a combination of the “fireworks” innovation process model and organizational learning theory. First, we found that developing green technologies involves a long‐term exploratory process without guarantee of (quick) success and likely involves many exploration failures. Second, as exploration unfolds along multiple technology trajectories, learning occurs in individual exploration paths (on‐path), when new paths are pursued (path‐initiation), and when knowledge from one path is spilled over to subsequent paths (across‐paths). Third, to increase their chances for success, firms can increase the efficiency of exploration by fostering a failure‐friendly organizational culture, deliberately experimenting, and purposefully learning from failures.     

Digitale Perspektiven in der Kommunikations- und Mediengeschichte

In the discussion about the future of communication and media science in digital times, this article focuses on the position and perspective of communication and media history. The challenges, problems and potentials associated with digitization are illustrated using the example of historical press research. Within the media ensemble of classical mass communication, the periodic press in particular benefits from the retrospective digitization of historical media and their digital edition in databases and portals. For historical press research, digitized newspapers and digital newspaper portals represent an originally new, because increasingly digital research situation: Digital newspaper portals as a novel, originally digital world for newspapers not only facilitate the path to newspapers and their contents, they also open them up as digital resources machine-readable and thus open up completely new paths for research—not least supported by digital methods.The main objective of this article is to discuss the epistemological-methodological problems and the practical operationalization of digitally framed or supported research processes in historical press research and to present concrete perspectives of knowledge and research strategies for practice. With this aim in mind, the paper discusses three points:(1.) Methodological and practical consequences of historical press research in digital research environments. With the digitization of newspapers and their digital reproduction in newspaper portals, their source character shifts essentially in three dimensions: They are edited and indexed digitally and their complete content is made accessible through optical character recognition. This makes previously unimportant technical aspects such as data formats, portal interfaces, search algorithms and programming interfaces very relevant for the methodology of historical press research. A primary methodological effect of the digital reorganization of newspapers in data and portals is the reversal of the usual reading practice: from “top down” to “bottom up”. With the help of “keyword searching”, newspapers can now be searched comprehensively and transversely to the order of the newspaper original. Nevertheless, there is a warning against an all too naïve and uncritical usage of digitized newspapers and newspaper portals. In practice, some problems and risks are crucial for the conception of historical newspaper research in digital research environments: Besides a hardly standardized and in large parts “wild”, because often uncoordinated and selective digitization of newspapers, the newspaper portals are different in their conception as well as characterized by different content, technical, legal and entrepreneurial conditions.(2.) Historical newspapers as digital sources in practice. The methodological and technical framework are fundamental and far-reaching for the further practical use of newspapers as digital sources in research. In each research step, it must be considered that digitized newspapers are genuinely new and, depending on the quality and depth of digitization, very complex sources with information gains and losses compared to the originals. Newspapers are not simply digitized, they are digitally constructed and differ in this construction from each other. In this respect, historical press researchers are increasingly becoming “users”. However simple and uncomplicated newspaper portals may be in practice, one must incorporate the implicit functions (hidden in algorithms, data and code) and the limits of these knowledge engines and their “correct” use into the research process. Combining and mediating classical hermeneutic methods with search technologies is an essential moment in the practical handling of digitized newspapers.(3.) Historical press research and digital methods. In the light of the new research situation which is emerging with digitized newspapers and newspaper portals, it is obvious that historical press research should increasingly open up to the possibilities of digital methods. In the digital method discussion of historical press research, one concept in particular forms a central point of reference: Franco Moretti’s concept of “Distant Reading”. Basically, “Distant Reading”—and this is what makes this perspective so interesting for historical press research in dealing with the considerable metadata and full text volumes of digitized newspapers—is about the quantitative-automatic indexing of large text corpora using methods and techniques of “Text Mining”. Digital text methods are thus seriously changing the way we look at texts and the research practice with texts such as newspapers: In parts, they automate and accelerate reading processes, produce “new” text extracts by the computer, generate new interpretation contexts between individual text, corpus and condensate, and thus set new orientation points for “close reading”. Computers and digital text methods thus do not relieve researchers of interpretation. Rather, they constantly challenge them to interpret in a continuous interplay in order to give meaning to the text patterns discovered by machines.In spite of all these advantages, digital methods have so far only been used sporadically in historical press research. For this reason, finally a digital workflow for research processes in historical press research will be presented, which illustrates and summarizes essential challenges, problems, solutions and potentials of digitally framed or supported research in press history.     

Supply chain capabilities for facilitating the internationalisation of retailers – a multiple case study of three Swedish retail companies

ABSTRACT

Market-oriented aspects of retail internationalisation have received a lot of research attention since the 1990s. However, beyond these aspects lies also supply-chain oriented capabilities that are necessary for retailers to successfully internationalise into foreign sales markets. By using a perspective based on resource-based theories, this paper explores supply-chain oriented capabilities that facilitate retail internationalisation. The research is based on a multiple case study of three Swedish retailers. Through the perspective of research based theories, specifically capabilities, the empirical data is studied in a single-case as well as a cross-case analysis. Findings reveal three supply chain-oriented capability categories (leadership capability, integration capability and learning capability) of importance for retail internationalisation. Resources necessary for the capabilities are to be found internally at the retailer, but also externally at other firms. This research adds to the market-oriented knowledge on retail internationalisation by adding a supply-chain oriented perspective. Further, it provides an understanding of the early phases of retail internationalisation.     

Regime switching rough Heston model

This model combines two important stylized features of volatility, the rough behavior consistent with a Hurst parameter less than , and the regime switching property consistent with more long-term economic considerations. It is nevertheless highly tractable in the sense of semianalytic formulae for European options, and permits a partial Monte Carlo method of similar computational speed as the semianalytic formula (at an appropriate number of Monte Carlo simulations). While option prices are relatively insensitive to the choice of Hurst parameter, introducing rough volatility allows for a better fit to the at-the-money skew.     

Aufgaben des Controllings im Rahmen des Risikomanagementprozesses

Ohne Zusammenfassung Dr. Pascal Nevries ist Gesch?ftsführer des Center for Controlling & Management (CCM). Daneben ist er Habilitand am Lehrstuhl von Prof. Dr. Dr. h.c. Weber sowie Mitglied des Instituts für Management & Controlling (IMC). Dipl.-Kfm. Erik Strau? ist wissenschaftlicher Mitarbeiter am Center for Controlling & Management (CCM). Daneben ist er Doktorand am Lehrstuhl von Prof. Dr. Dr. h.c. Weber sowie Mitglied des Instituts für Management & Controlling (IMC).     

The Neuer Markt as an institution of creation and destruction

The market for publicly traded equity is the heart of a modern capitalist system. In particular, the market for newly listed firms is in turn a bellwether for the public equity market because the entry gives firms expanded access to capital, allowing them to emerge and grow. On the other hand, stock markets also serve as an institution to reallocate productive resources from non-surviving to surviving firms. We describe the Neuer Markt—a special segment of the Frankfurt Stock Exchange in Germany—as an institution to foster the creation of new firms and their destruction.